Tel Aviv: Israel is increasing pressure on Hamas to accept what it claims is a fresh ceasefire proposal from the United States, diverging from the terms agreed upon in January. By enforcing a blockade on the Gaza Strip, Israel seeks to push Hamas into compliance, leaving the fragile truce in uncertainty.
The “Witkoff Proposal”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has referred to the new ceasefire plan as the “Witkoff proposal,” named after Steve Witkoff, a Mideast adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the White House has only expressed general support for Israel’s actions without confirming the specifics of the proposal.
The proposal comes at a critical juncture, as the first phase of the negotiated truce has ended while the second remains unresolved. Under the new plan, Hamas would be required to release half of its remaining captives in exchange for a ceasefire extension and negotiations for a permanent peace. However, Israel has not mentioned releasing additional Palestinian detainees, a key element of the initial agreement.
Hamas has denounced the new plan, calling it an attempt to undermine the existing ceasefire framework. The current deal, negotiated by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, sought to facilitate a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the repatriation of all hostages, and a long-term truce. However, no significant progress has been made in discussions.
Israel’s Blockade and Threats
On Sunday, Israel cut off all food, fuel, and medical supplies to Gaza’s two million residents, warning of “additional consequences” if Hamas refuses the new proposal. The blockade has intensified humanitarian concerns in the region, with aid organizations warning of worsening conditions.
Meanwhile, Arab leaders are advancing an alternative postwar plan for Gaza, countering Trump’s controversial proposal to evacuate residents and repurpose the territory as a tourism hub.
The Truce in Limbo
After more than a year of negotiations, a ceasefire was reached in January with a three-phase plan to end hostilities. The agreement was intended to resolve the crisis sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack that killed nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and resulted in the capture of 251 hostages. A previous truce saw nearly 100 hostages released, while Israeli forces later recovered additional bodies and rescued eight captives.
During the first six-week phase of the January truce, Hamas released 25 Israeli hostages—some alive, others deceased—in exchange for approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees. Israeli troops withdrew from most of Gaza, allowing much-needed humanitarian aid to flow into the region, though both sides accused each other of violations.
The second phase was always expected to be more contentious, requiring Israel to balance two conflicting objectives: securing the hostages’ return and dismantling Hamas’ control over Gaza. Hamas has insisted it will only release the remaining captives if Israel commits to a complete cessation of hostilities. Even if Hamas relinquishes formal governance to other Palestinian factions, it would still maintain significant influence.
Strategic Gains for Israel
Currently, Hamas is believed to be holding 59 hostages, including 35 presumed dead. Under the Witkoff proposal, half of these hostages would be released immediately without Israel offering anything new in return. This would provide a six-week window—spanning from the Jewish Passover holiday to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan—for negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages.
Reducing the number of captives would weaken Hamas’ leverage, allowing Israel and the U.S. to push for additional demands, such as the disarmament of Hamas and the expulsion of its leaders. These conditions were not part of the initial January agreement and are expected to be a major point of contention in future talks.
Netanyahu’s Political Calculations
Domestically, Netanyahu faces immense pressure from far-right allies advocating for Jewish settlements in Gaza, the total eradication of Hamas, and the mass displacement of Palestinian residents. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has warned that if Netanyahu advances to Phase 2 of the current truce without resuming military operations, his coalition could collapse.
The revised plan would give Netanyahu six weeks of political breathing room to pass a crucial budget before the end of the month. Failure to do so could trigger early elections, potentially unseating him before his term is up.
The U.S. Position
Netanyahu has claimed that the Trump administration is “fully coordinated” with Israel’s strategy. However, Witkoff has not publicly addressed the plan bearing his name, and U.S. officials have yet to confirm its details. Trump himself has sent mixed messages, at times taking credit for the January ceasefire agreement while also advocating for aggressive military action if hostages are not released immediately.
Arab Opposition to Trump’s Gaza Plan
Trump’s controversial proposal to evacuate Gaza’s 2 million residents and convert the territory into a tourist destination has been met with strong opposition from Arab nations, Palestinian leaders, and human rights organizations. Critics argue that such a move could violate international law and provoke further conflict.
Egypt is expected to present a counterproposal at an Arab summit in Cairo, advocating for Palestinians to remain in Gaza and relocate to designated “safe zones” while the city undergoes reconstruction. The proposal also calls for Hamas to relinquish control to a transitional governing body composed of political independents, with international support to strengthen Palestinian institutions.
However, Israel has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s postwar administration, making it unclear whether Netanyahu would engage with the Arab-backed alternative. Additionally, while Trump has encouraged Arab states to draft their own Gaza plan, it remains uncertain whether he would endorse it.
Uncertain Future
With the current truce at a standstill and both sides unwilling to yield, the situation in Gaza remains precarious. If the new ceasefire proposal fails, Israel may escalate its military campaign, potentially leading to renewed bloodshed. Meanwhile, Arab leaders continue to push for diplomatic solutions, but whether their proposals will gain traction remains to be seen.
